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Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

Свежие аналитические материалы. Технический анализ и прогнозы по отдельным инструментам.

Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

Сообщение Альфа-Форекс » 12 май 2015, 19:16

Обзор и прогноз по рынку на 12.05.2015

Пара евро/доллар вчера двигалась преимущественно размеренно. Зафиксированный в начале сессии скачок к максимуму в районе 1.1195 был недолгим, цены буквально сразу же скорректировались в район 1.1150. Восстановление оптимистичных настроений на рынке существенно ограничивается ситуаций в Греции. Страна по-прежнему не может найти общего языка со своими кредиторами. Встреча представителей Афин с Еврогруппой вновь не принесла практически никаких результатов за исключением клятвенных заверений сторон в готовности к более интенсивной работе над поиском консенсуса. По крайней мере, обнадеживает тот факт, что ни Греция, ни еврозона не рассматривают вариант выхода страны из состава ЕС. Сегодня повестка дня еврозоны не содержит значимых событий, поэтому парой по-прежнему будут двигать настроения и слухи.

Британский фунт выступил в роли основного триумфатора прошедшего дня. Котировки пары GBPUSD впервые с декабря 2015-го года коснулись отметки 1.5600, хотя затем и скорректировались в область 1.5585. Основным поводом для оптимизма стало вовсе не решение Банка Англии сохранить ставку на минимальном уровне – данный ход был не только предсказуемым, но и единственно возможным в условиях с крайне низкой инфляцией. Драйвером роста валюты по-прежнему служат итоги выборов в британский парламент, где победу одержали консерваторы. Сегодня достаточно важным релизом обещает стать оценка темпов роста экономики Великобритании от института NIESR. Данные за 1-й квартал оказались удручающими – ВВП вырос лишь на 0,3%, и если сегодняшняя оценка окажется более оптимистичной, следует ожидать закрепления пары GBPUSD над отметкой 1.5600.

Иена сессию провела достаточно спокойно. Решение Народного банка Китая снизить ставку на 0,25% до 5,10% практически не оказало влияние на азиатские рынки, и иена исключением не стала. Судя по всему, доллар нашел единственного конкурента, который сейчас не готов оказать сопротивление, поэтому пара USDJPY в течение дня смогла прибавить более 50 пунктов и пробить барьер на 120.10. Однако выход любого макроэкономического негатива в США спровоцирует неминуемый разворот пары в район 119.40. В частности, такая динамика может быть спровоцирована выступлением представителя Комитета по открытому рынку ФРС США Вильямса, которое состоится сегодня вечером. Если Центробанк вновь продемонстрирует «миролюбивую» риторику в отношении сроков возможного повышения ставки, это спровоцирует новую волну давления на американский доллар.

Андрей Диргин, директор департамента аналитики Альфа-Форекс
Альфа-Форекс - MetaTrader 4 с ликвидностью Альфа-Банка.
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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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Re: Ежедневный обзор по валютному рынку от Альфа-Форекс

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